Based on the 5pm update just released from the National Hurricane Center, the center of Hurricane Sandy is expected to pass west of Connecticut about mid day on Tuesday. This puts our state on the east side of the storm which will result in the greatest potential for storm surge along coastal Connecticut. We will also have an astronomical high tide as there will be a full moon on the Tuesday. As the storm makes its way up the eastern seaboard and into cooler ocean waters, it is expected to begin transitioning into an extratropical system. This should result in some loss of storm intensity, however, at the same time, a broadening of the wind field will occur. The forward motion of the storm is predicted to be somewhat atypical of tropical systems that effect the Northeast. This is because tropical systems usually increase in forward speed the higher they are in latitude. This is not predicted to occur. Thus with a wind field well ahead of the storm due to broadening of the storm itself as it transitions and takes on extratropical characteristics, and a slower forward motion, the result will be a prolonged wind event for our area. Combined with an astronomical high tide and the center passing west of here as was the case with Irene, we could very well see conditions along Cosey Beach Avenue in East Haven that are similar if not worse then experienced during Irene.
Data from my weather station mounted on the roof of The Town Beach House can be accessed at: www.weatherlink.com/user/johndigiovanni